One Poll Doesn’t Decide the Race: What Arizona Voters Should Know About the Latest Governor’s Polling
Updated: 17 hours ago
By The Mohave Insider
A new Arizona governor’s race poll showing Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs with a substantial lead over Republican challenger Andy Biggs has generated plenty of reaction — including skepticism from Republicans who argue the numbers do not reflect what they are seeing on the ground.
But whether voters like a poll's results or question them, there is an important distinction to remember:
A poll is not an election result.
The latest HighGround survey reported Hobbs at 49.5% and Biggs at 34.3% among likely Arizona voters, a roughly 15-point advantage for the incumbent governor. The survey also reported a significant Hobbs advantage among independent and unaffiliated voters. (https://www.azfamily.com)
That is a significant finding — but it is also only one piece of a much larger polling picture.
Other Polls Show a Different Race
Recent Arizona polling has not produced one uniform result.
A review of several recent polls compiled by 270toWin shows considerably different margins depending on the pollster.
Recent surveys listed by the polling aggregator include:
HighGround: Hobbs 50%, Biggs 34%
Quantus Insights: Hobbs 49%, Biggs 43%
NextGen Polling: Hobbs 39%, Biggs 38%
Noble Predictive Insights: Hobbs 48%, Biggs 35%
Stealth Analytics: Hobbs 43%, Biggs 38%
AARP: Hobbs 52%, Biggs 44%
In other words, the recent surveys listed there all showed Hobbs ahead, but the size of that advantage varied considerably — from approximately one percentage point to more than 15 points. (270toWin.com)
That variation is one reason voters should be cautious about treating any single poll as a prediction of what will happen on Election Day.
Why Can Polls Be So Different?
Polling organizations do not necessarily survey the exact same type of voters.
Some surveys measure registered voters, while others attempt to identify likely voters. Pollsters can also use different methods for determining who is likely to participate, how respondents are contacted and how the final sample is weighted.
Even the recent Arizona polls have different sample sizes and margins of error.
For example, the AARP survey included 913 likely voters and reported a margin of error of approximately 3.2 percentage points. That poll found Hobbs leading Biggs 52% to 44%. (AARP)
The Noble Predictive Insights poll surveyed 923 likely voters and also reported a margin of error of approximately 3.2 points. It placed Hobbs ahead 48% to 35%. (KTAR.com)
Different assumptions about turnout can produce different results — particularly in a state like Arizona, where independents and unaffiliated voters can play an important role.
Does That Mean a Poll You Disagree With Is “Fake”?
Not necessarily.
A poll producing an unexpected result does not, by itself, prove that the poll is fraudulent, intentionally misleading or “fake news.”
The more useful questions are:
Who conducted the poll? Who paid for it? How many people were surveyed? Were they registered voters or likely voters? When was the survey conducted? What was the margin of error? How were respondents contacted?
Those details provide voters with considerably more information than simply looking at the headline.
A responsible way to follow an election is to examine multiple polls over time rather than assuming one survey tells the entire story.
“I’m Not Seeing Any Biggs Ads”
Another argument circulating among some Republican voters is that they are not seeing enough campaign activity or advertising from Biggs.
That does not necessarily mean advertising is not occurring.
The Biggs campaign announced on August 18 that it had launched a $250,000 advertising campaign on connected television and streaming platforms, specifically describing the campaign as targeting Arizona voters. That announcement came directly from the campaign and therefore represents the campaign's description of its own advertising strategy. (Andy Biggs for Governor)
Modern political advertising is increasingly targeted.
Campaigns can purchase advertising intended for particular geographic areas, demographic groups or types of voters. That means two Arizona residents watching different streaming services — or even the same service — may have very different experiences with political advertisements.
A Republican voter who has already been identified as strongly supporting Biggs may therefore not necessarily receive the same advertising as an independent or undecided voter.
However, without access to a campaign's complete internal advertising strategy, it would be speculation to conclude that the absence of advertisements for a particular voter proves either that the campaign is inactive or that it is intentionally withholding advertising from committed supporters.
Polling Can Influence Perception — But Voting Determines the Winner
Polling can affect the political conversation.
A large lead can generate headlines, increase attention on one campaign and cause supporters of another candidate to question whether their candidate can still win.
But polls do not award votes.
They do not count ballots.
And they do not determine who becomes governor.
The 2026 Arizona general election takes place November 3. According to the Arizona Secretary of State, the voter-registration deadline is October 5, while early voting begins October 7. (Arizona Secretary of State)
Until ballots are actually cast and counted, polling remains an estimate of public opinion at a particular moment.
The Bottom Line
Republicans should not automatically dismiss unfavorable polling.
Democrats should not assume favorable polling guarantees victory.
And independent voters should not assume the race has already been decided.
The most accurate picture generally comes from watching multiple reputable polls, examining their methodology and following how those numbers change over time.
Arizona's recent polling currently shows Gov. Katie Hobbs ahead of Andy Biggs, but the size of that lead varies substantially depending on the survey. (270toWin.com)
That is important context.
There is a difference between saying “this poll shows a candidate ahead” and saying “this election is already decided.”
The first is reporting data.
The second is something voters — not pollsters — will determine on November 3.
Editor’s Note: The Mohave Insider does not treat individual polls as election results. This article does not assess or recommend either candidate. Polling figures are presented so readers can compare publicly reported survey results and understand the context behind them.
The Mohave Insider — Stay Informed. Stay Involved.
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